The Sunshine Coast enters 2026 in a different phase than many Canadian urban markets—but not an “all clear.” The post-pandemic surge is well behind us, and the market has been working through a multi-year adjustment: sales are softer than peak years, buyers are taking longer to decide, and pricing has been steadily re-anchoring to property fundamentals.
December’s numbers reinforce that this is still a buyer-leaning environment in key segments. Detached benchmark pricing ended the year down year-over-year, and absorption remains modest—especially compared to the pace we saw during 2020–2022.
This forecast outlines what buyers, sellers, and investors should realistically expect in 2026 based on local trends, mortgage renewals, interest-rate direction, and the practical reality that the Sunshine Coast remains influenced by conditions in Metro Vancouver.
Market conditions at the start of 2026
By the end of 2025, the Sunshine Coast had moved away from momentum-driven pricing and into a slower, more selective market. Buyers have more choice and more negotiating room than during the peak years—but the data suggests the market is still working through the adjustment rather than being fully “settled.”
In December:
Taken together, these conditions point to a 2026 market that is unlikely to snap back quickly—but also unlikely to “crash” without an external shock. The more realistic expectation is a year of selective demand where outcomes depend heavily on pricing, presentation, and competition.
Interest rates and mortgage renewals
Mortgage renewals tied to 2020–2022 originations remain one of the biggest swing factors for 2026. Even with some rate relief, many renewals still reset at meaningfully higher payments than households planned for.
On the Sunshine Coast, this is more likely to affect supply than demand:
Some owners will list earlier than planned to avoid payment shock.
Others will hold, rent, or adjust budgets—especially if their home is hard to replace.
This means 2026 could see more listing pressure in detached homes, particularly where owners have larger mortgages or where properties require upgrades. That does not automatically translate to lower prices—but it does keep buyers in the driver’s seat when inventory is high.
The Vancouver connection: why it matters on the Coast
This is why it’s risky to write a Coast forecast without explicitly acknowledging Vancouver. Even if the Coast has “adjusted earlier,” a weak Vancouver market can still cap demand here and keep absorption modest.
And right now, credible outlooks for B.C./Vancouver range from “gradual recovery” to “further easing,” depending on the source.
Detached homes
Detached homes are likely to show the widest range of outcomes in 2026 because they carry the most renewal risk, the most condition variability, and the most competition when inventory builds.
(Detached ended 2025 with a buyer-leaning absorption rate and a meaningful YoY benchmark decline.)
Townhomes and attached homes
Townhomes are still positioned as a “value” segment, but December showed very soft absorption, which suggests buyers are not rushing.
Expected price movement: -2% to +3%
Condominiums
Condos remain supported by affordability and downsizer demand, and they ended the year closer to balanced than other segments.
Expected price movement: -1% to +3%
Land
Land remains the most selective category, driven by build costs, servicing constraints, permitting timelines, and financing conditions.
Expected price movement: flat to -5% (highly property-specific)
Buildable, well-sited lots with clear servicing will hold value best. Lots with uncertainty or high development cost will remain under pressure.
What this means for buyers in 2026
2026 is shaping up to reward preparation more than urgency. Buyers should expect:
more negotiating room,
longer decision timelines,
and clearer differentiation between “great property at the right price” and everything else.
The best opportunities are likely to appear when:
What this means for sellers in 2026
For sellers, 2026 is not the year to “test the market” with aspirational pricing. The market is price-sensitive and comparison-driven.
What sells:
What sits:
Final outlook
The Sunshine Coast market in 2026 looks steady in the sense that it is not driven by panic—but it is also not a momentum market. Pricing is still adjusting in key segments, and Vancouver’s trajectory remains a meaningful constraint on Coast demand.
Rather than a boom or a bust, 2026 is most likely to be a year defined by selective buying and realistic selling—where the winners are the people who price and negotiate based on today’s fundamentals, not yesterday’s peak.
December’s numbers reinforce that this is still a buyer-leaning environment in key segments. Detached benchmark pricing ended the year down year-over-year, and absorption remains modest—especially compared to the pace we saw during 2020–2022.
This forecast outlines what buyers, sellers, and investors should realistically expect in 2026 based on local trends, mortgage renewals, interest-rate direction, and the practical reality that the Sunshine Coast remains influenced by conditions in Metro Vancouver.
Market conditions at the start of 2026
By the end of 2025, the Sunshine Coast had moved away from momentum-driven pricing and into a slower, more selective market. Buyers have more choice and more negotiating room than during the peak years—but the data suggests the market is still working through the adjustment rather than being fully “settled.”
In December:
- Detached sat at a 10.8% sales-to-active ratio, which is buyer-leaning.
- Townhomes were even softer at 6.9% (also buyer-leaning).
- Condos were closer to balanced at 13.0%, but still not a hot market.
- Detached benchmark pricing also finished December down 6.1% year-over-year ($841,000 vs $896,100), which tells us the pricing reset is not finished everywhere.
Taken together, these conditions point to a 2026 market that is unlikely to snap back quickly—but also unlikely to “crash” without an external shock. The more realistic expectation is a year of selective demand where outcomes depend heavily on pricing, presentation, and competition.
Interest rates and mortgage renewals
Mortgage renewals tied to 2020–2022 originations remain one of the biggest swing factors for 2026. Even with some rate relief, many renewals still reset at meaningfully higher payments than households planned for.
On the Sunshine Coast, this is more likely to affect supply than demand:
Some owners will list earlier than planned to avoid payment shock.
Others will hold, rent, or adjust budgets—especially if their home is hard to replace.
This means 2026 could see more listing pressure in detached homes, particularly where owners have larger mortgages or where properties require upgrades. That does not automatically translate to lower prices—but it does keep buyers in the driver’s seat when inventory is high.
The Vancouver connection: why it matters on the Coast
- The Sunshine Coast is still a feeder market. When Metro Vancouver slows:
- Coast-bound buyers often arrive with less equity,
- their Vancouver homes take longer to sell, and
- they become more price-sensitive (or delay buying altogether).
This is why it’s risky to write a Coast forecast without explicitly acknowledging Vancouver. Even if the Coast has “adjusted earlier,” a weak Vancouver market can still cap demand here and keep absorption modest.
And right now, credible outlooks for B.C./Vancouver range from “gradual recovery” to “further easing,” depending on the source.
Price forecast by property type
Detached homes are likely to show the widest range of outcomes in 2026 because they carry the most renewal risk, the most condition variability, and the most competition when inventory builds.
- Expected price movement: -4% to +1%
- Homes that are well-located and priced correctly should still sell.
- Homes that are overpriced, renovation-heavy, or competing against many similar listings are more likely to see price reductions than bidding wars.
(Detached ended 2025 with a buyer-leaning absorption rate and a meaningful YoY benchmark decline.)
Townhomes and attached homes
Townhomes are still positioned as a “value” segment, but December showed very soft absorption, which suggests buyers are not rushing.
Expected price movement: -2% to +3%
Condominiums
Condos remain supported by affordability and downsizer demand, and they ended the year closer to balanced than other segments.
Expected price movement: -1% to +3%
Land
Land remains the most selective category, driven by build costs, servicing constraints, permitting timelines, and financing conditions.
Expected price movement: flat to -5% (highly property-specific)
Buildable, well-sited lots with clear servicing will hold value best. Lots with uncertainty or high development cost will remain under pressure.
What this means for buyers in 2026
2026 is shaping up to reward preparation more than urgency. Buyers should expect:
more negotiating room,
longer decision timelines,
and clearer differentiation between “great property at the right price” and everything else.
The best opportunities are likely to appear when:
- a listing is priced to today’s market (not 2022),
- sellers are motivated by renewals or timing,
- and competition is high within a specific neighbourhood or product type.
What this means for sellers in 2026
For sellers, 2026 is not the year to “test the market” with aspirational pricing. The market is price-sensitive and comparison-driven.
What sells:
- accurate pricing,
- clean presentation,
- clear pre-inspection / disclosure strategy,
- and a plan that reflects competing inventory.
What sits:
- “future potential” pricing without evidence,
- renovation-heavy homes without a discount,
- and listings that ignore local competition.
Final outlook
The Sunshine Coast market in 2026 looks steady in the sense that it is not driven by panic—but it is also not a momentum market. Pricing is still adjusting in key segments, and Vancouver’s trajectory remains a meaningful constraint on Coast demand.
Rather than a boom or a bust, 2026 is most likely to be a year defined by selective buying and realistic selling—where the winners are the people who price and negotiate based on today’s fundamentals, not yesterday’s peak.